Is it possible my TDEE is wrong?

I feel like I am losing my mind. I am 31F 163cm and 80kg as of this morning. According to most TDEE calculators I use, at a completely sedentary lifestyle, my TDEE should be around 1800.

I would like to lose at least 10kg, and I am conscious of what I eat: I weigh and measure out food. I primarily eat at home and make many things myself and try to use light/low-fat etc. options where available. I track my calories using Fitbit and I try to overestimate what I'm eating, to be on the safe side, and generally hit around 1,500 calories per day.

But, crucially - I am also not sedentary. I run for an hour in the mornings 5x a week, usually intervals. I attend a workout (barre) class once a week. During the week, I typically hit 10k steps every day. My weekends are generally quieter, but I try to go on walks or do activities that will get some steps in. According to my Fitbit, on my 'sedentary' weekend days, I'm burning 2000 calories. On my more active days, I can burn up to 2800. I know the Fitbit isn't totally accurate and I don't think I'm actually in a deficit of 500-1300 calories daily, but still? I feel like I should be losing weight, and yet I am 7kg heavier than I was this time last year and 2.5kg heavier than the last time I weight myself a month ago.

I feel like I am doing everything I possibly can and I'm not seeing results - if anything, I'm going the opposite direction and I don't know what to do. The only thing I can think is that my TDEE is much lower than what calculators/Fitbit are calculating and that I need an even more significant deficit than I'm already in.

Any thoughts, ideas, suggestions are appreciated!

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