140 days of tracking CICO!

For those of you who like to visualize data - here's a chart showing my weight change and caloric intake! I also added a line showing my approximate TDEE that I calculated based on this data.

Here's an Excel sheet with all of the data I used to create it. Feel free to check my math!

Sources of error:

  • I'm only human! I track religiously using MyFitnessPal but expect some margin of error. I use a food scale at home. When eating out, I tried to estimate upward as much as possible (ie, choosing the highest calorie option when guessing calories for a dish at a restaurant).

  • Butterfingers copying data over... I was pretty careful but did not thoroughly double check the numbers.

  • I weighed myself regularly at first but then switched to only recording weights that were lower than the previous one. I'm kicking myself now! This chart would be way cooler with weight recorded at consistent intervals.

  • All weights were recorded first thing in the morning, on the same scale, wearing the same thing, after using the restroom.

Data summary over 140 days:

10/21/2018 – 03/09/2019

Weight change in pounds: -9.0

Total intake in kcal over 140 days: 303468

Estimated deficit in kcal (9 lbs x 3500 kcal): 31500

Net kcal expenditure (estimated deficit + intake): 334968

Estimated TDEE (net kcal / 140 days): 2392.63

Data summary since switching to "maintenance:"

01/13/2019 – 03/09/2019

Total intake in kcal over 55 days: 136020

Estimated TDEE in kcal x 55 days: 131594.65

Difference in kcal (total intake - estimated TDEE): 4425.35

Predicted weight gain in pounds (difference / 3500): 1.36

Actual weight gain in pounds: 1.5

I'm 27, 5'9F, vegetarian. No deliberate exercise unless walking my dog counts but I have a very physical job. I'm a zookeeper so I'm on my feet for about 7 hours of each workday and several hours of that are light to heavy yard work or swimming. When I carry it, my iPhone usually estimates I walk between 5 and 7 miles each workday.

Conclusions:

  • Holy shit, counting calories really works to predict weight change! The data is beautiful.

  • My TDEE is way higher than I had assumed based on online calculators.

  • I've lost nearly ten pounds and it's a significant aesthetic improvement. I've also started to undo some of my unhealthy food behaviors. I don't have the data but I would guess that I've spent most of my life alternating between over-restricting and overcompensating. Starting this October, when I began counting calories, I began to have a regular menstrual cycle for the first time in my life. Despite steadily losing weight I've menstruated every month like clockwork rather than every two to four. Before this October, I was (obviously) at an overall intake level that was above my TDEE because I was slowly gaining fat but I think I was alternating between several days of "good" "healthy" eating (very very low caloric intake) with eating an entire jar of peanut butter in one sitting because I was inexplicably ravenous.

  • Intermittent fasting 18:6 helped me keep those intake numbers really low but left me feeling shitty and obsessed with food. I've been eating breakfast again for the past two months and it's been really nice.

  • I don't necessarily have a "goal weight" but I would like to lose a little bit more fat and gain some muscle. I am on week two of C25k and considering starting up a rock climbing gym membership again. For the past two months I've been aiming loosely at my newly-calculated maintenance calories. I've been very strict about counting calories but not very strict about keeping that number in a certain range. The results have been pretty clear - a pound and a half gained in 6 weeks! Looks like I need more practice maintaining.

  • Thank you r/loseit for all of the information on how to manage weight in a realistic and healthy way!!!!!

submitted by /u/bucorvidae
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