Let's start with the gross misconception of CICO: It's basically the first law of Thermodynamics that in a closed system energy cannot be created or destroyed so applied to human physiology means that if I (or you) take in more calories than you expend you will gain weight and on the flip side if I (or you) expend more calories than you consume you will lose weight.
Sounds logical right?
The biggest problem is your body is much more complex than this simple math equation and what most people have excluded is the process of fat storage and metabolism.
Let's take a step back and think of this without the science terms. If CICO is all that's needed and eating less calories then you expend will allow you to lose weight then why are there so many posts praising CICO that say things like they also watch what they eat and they've modified their diet to cut out treats?
Examples:
https://old.reddit.com/r/loseit/comments/68mfsk/its_crazy_how_i_lost_more_weight_with_cico/ https://old.reddit.com/r/loseit/comments/9bfg4a/f50_54_lost_60_lbs_over_9_months_through_cico_and/ https://old.reddit.com/r/loseit/comments/9ii9ib/52_pounds_in_52_weeks/ https://old.reddit.com/r/loseit/comments/9gb3nm/after_three_years_of_trying_cico_im_finally_near/
Just search for CICO on this sub and read the posts. The ones without details can't be counted because they don't say what they eat, but the majority with food details all talk about dietary changes. If CICO is "it" then technically you should be able to eat 1900 calories of Twinkies and lose that weight (*Based on a 2000 calorie BMR). I think we can all agree that is neither healthy nor a recipe for success.
But why can't we just eat cake?
This is the reason CICO is bullshit. There are studies now showing the effects of carbohydrates (especially processed carbs) on the body and the BMR (I'll try to find them if requested). When people predisposed to weight gain eat carbs their insulin goes up to remove that sugar from the blood (that's the job of insulin). Insulin signals the body to store energy as fat. Although protein does raise insulin a bit (gluconeogenesis) the effect is nothing like what carbs do. So if you're eating Twinkies all day your body is in storage mode due to the increased insulin. So even though you're eating less than your BMR your body is in storage mode and most of those calories are actually not available to be burned. This is one instance where CICO fails the test.
Furthermore if you're always in insulin storage mode your body will lower your BMR. Your body is not stupid, if insulin is high and storage mode is active meaning you have few calories available from intake and none from fat stores your body will lower your energy expenditure because it doesn't want to die. Again CICO fails because the body will modulate BMR to stay alive in the case of storage mode.
Now on the flip side if you eat very low carbs and have a low level of insulin (eating LCHF - low protein) there are studies showing (in mice) that eating excess calories does not increase weight. The reason is with low insulin the body is in fat burning mode. Insulin is the key here. Low insulin means that calories that are taken in and fat that is stored is now available to be burned and there is not storage mode. Excess calories are excreted. Once again CICO fails.
One more interesting example: Fasting. With fasting there are a few studies showing that BMR increases after a few days of fasting. This is the ultimate low insulin state where the body is absolutely adapted to burning fat storage for fuel. With fasting only fat from storage can be used to run the bodily process. You could look at this state and say that CICO passes, but with the previous examples showing how the various bodily functions relate to CICO why bother saying CICO was what worked for you when in reality you've more than likely modified your diet to produce less insulin.
If I haven't convince you with this I challenge you to go on a 1900 calorie Twinkie diet and see what happens. At 237 calories per pack you would get 7 packs per day. 2 for breakfast, 2 for lunch and 3 for dinner. You may initially lose some weight for a few weeks especially with exercise, but I'd be curious to see what kind of BMR numbers you end up with in the end.
In conclusion I think the CICO idea is misleading because the body absolutely knows nothing about calories (it doesn't have an internal calorie counter) and it ignores the effects eating different nutrients has on the storage and utilization of energy.
If anyone is curious I was 196 lbs in early August and I felt like shit most of the time. After fasting 2.5 days, then 3.5 days in September I'm now a steady 180 lbs and I feel like my body has healed a great deal inside (I can even eat wheat occasionally with very little issue). I fast Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays. Although a lot of pain has reduced I feel that I need more and will be fasting for 5 days starting Monday.
Dr Jason Fung convinced me that fasting is what was best for me and he has helped thousands of type 2 diabetics cure themselves with fasting (I am not affiliated with Jason Fung, I just love fasting).
https://idmprogram.com/first-law-thermodynamics-irrelevant/
I'm not a doctor and this is not medical advice.
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